Florida Population Growth by County 2026: BEBR Data
Florida county population growth in 2026: BEBR-published estimates and what the migration data means for move demand and pricing.
Last Updated: June 2026
TL;DR: The Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida publishes annual county-level population estimates. The 2026 data shows Florida adding roughly 300,000 to 400,000 residents per year, with St. Johns, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Pasco, and Osceola leading growth. High-growth counties drive peak-season crew demand, so book 8 to 12 weeks ahead.
Florida population growth by county in 2026 follows the pattern that BEBR has tracked for years. The state added between 300,000 and 400,000 new residents per year through the mid-2020s, with the growth packed into a handful of suburban counties. Safebound Moving and Storage sees the same pattern in its booking data, with crew demand rising fast in St. Johns, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Pasco, and Osceola. The BEBR report is the source of record for the county-by-county count.
Safebound has run moves across Florida and the country since 2016. The carrier holds USDOT 2900155, MC 975408, and FL IM2839, and runs trained, background-checked crews out of a West Palm Beach base. The carrier has completed 35,000+ moves and holds 4.9 stars across 2,401 real reviews. The carrier tracks the BEBR data each year so that crew planning matches the real demand curve in the fastest-growing parts of the state.
The sections below cover the fastest-growing counties, the flat or shrinking ones, the snowbird effect, the builder link, and the booking lead time that follows from the data.
The six takeaways below frame each high-growth Florida county, the migration data, and what it means for booking.
Key Takeaways
BEBR Is the Source: The Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida publishes the annual county-level population estimates that drive state planning.
Growth Rate: Florida added roughly 300,000 to 400,000 residents per year through the mid-2020s, one of the highest absolute counts in the country.
Top Growth Counties: St. Johns, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Pasco, and Osceola lead the growth chart, driven by Jacksonville, Fort Myers, Tampa, and Orlando suburbs.
Slow or Flat Counties: Rural Panhandle counties such as Liberty, Lafayette, and Hamilton show near-flat or small declines.
Peak-Season Pressure: High-growth counties drive peak demand from April through September, so a buyer should book 8 to 12 weeks ahead to lock crews.
Snowbird Counties: Sarasota, Manatee, Lee, and Collier add winter pickup pressure on top of the summer peak, with January through March booking up fast.
The seven sections below walk through the BEBR numbers, the county-by-county shifts, the drivers behind the moves, and the booking steps that turn the data into a smooth move.
What Is BEBR and Why Does It Matter for Florida Moves?
BEBR stands for the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. The bureau publishes the official Florida Population Studies series, which gives county-level estimates and short-range projections each year. State agencies, county planners, and school boards use the BEBR numbers for budget work. Moving firms use the same numbers to plan crew and truck capacity.
BEBR is the source the state recognizes for population planning. The data goes back decades and tracks every Florida county on a single timeline. A buyer who wants to know how busy a target county will be in the moving season can read the BEBR estimate and get a clear answer. Licensed Florida carriers check the BEBR file each year to map crew demand against the county-by-county growth curve. See the moving to or from Florida in 2026 guide for the broader state context.
Which Florida Counties Are Growing Fastest in 2026?
The fastest-growing counties in 2026 sit in suburban rings around the major metros. St. Johns County, which holds the Jacksonville southern suburbs, leads in percent growth. Lee County, which covers Fort Myers and Cape Coral, leads in raw new residents. Sarasota and Manatee, on the Gulf Coast, add steady five-digit growth each year. Pasco County, in the Tampa suburbs, runs a parallel curve. Osceola County, on the Kissimmee side of Orlando, rounds out the top group.
Each of these counties shares a pattern. New home permits run high. Inbound moves from out of state stay strong. Local hourly crews are stretched thin from April through September. A licensed long-distance and intrastate carrier should book these counties early to track the weekly booking pressure. For Gulf Coast specifics, the moving to Fort Myers Florida in 2026 guide covers the storm calendar that also shapes peak booking.
Which Florida Counties Show the Fastest BEBR Growth?
The county-by-county comparison below pulls the key BEBR growth tiers into a single view, paired with the regional hub each county serves and the practical move-demand implication that a buyer or relocation coordinator should expect. Reading the table together with the prior section helps clarify why some Florida counties book crews 8 to 12 weeks ahead while others can hold to shorter lead times. The grouping highlights two distinct patterns: suburban ring counties that are absorbing fast new-resident growth, and mature coastal metros where demand is steady but driven by infill and higher-end household profiles rather than raw inbound count.
| County | Region / Hub | BEBR 2026 Growth Indicator | Move Demand Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Johns | Jacksonville suburbs | High growth tier | Local crews tight April-September |
| Lee | Fort Myers / Cape Coral | High growth tier | Snowbird inflow + new construction |
| Sarasota | Gulf Coast | High growth tier | 55+ communities + retiree relocations |
| Manatee | Bradenton | High growth tier | Spillover from Sarasota market |
| Pasco | Tampa northern suburbs | High growth tier | Builder activity drives delivery coordination |
| Osceola | Kissimmee / Orlando metro | High growth tier | Theme park economy + new families |
| Miami-Dade | South Florida core | Stable / slower growth | Mature market; HNW + commercial |
| Broward | Fort Lauderdale metro | Stable / slower growth | Mature market; high-rise condos |
| Palm Beach | Palm Beach metro | Stable / slower growth | Mature HNW market |
Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), University of Florida county estimates 2026. Growth tiers are interpretive summaries for move demand context, not exact percentages.
The implications side of the table is where the BEBR data turns into a booking strategy. High growth-tier counties such as St. Johns and Lee see crew calendars fill weeks ahead because both the inbound move count and the new-build delivery schedule run high at the same time. Stable counties such as Miami-Dade and Broward run a different rhythm, where demand stays steady year-round but is shaped by HNW households, high-rise condo access constraints, and commercial work rather than raw resident growth. A buyer matching a move date to one of these counties should let the implication column drive the lead-time decision, not just the headline growth number.
Which Florida Counties Are Flat or Shrinking?
Not every Florida county is growing. Rural Panhandle counties such as Liberty, Lafayette, and Hamilton show near-flat or small declines in the BEBR data. These counties have small populations to start with, so a swing of a few hundred residents shifts the percent number. Limited job growth and a thin local housing market both shape the slow trend.
The large coastal metros of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach grow more slowly than the suburban counties to the north and west. The three South Florida counties already hold dense populations, so most of the growth there comes from infill rather than new suburbs. A move into or out of these counties still runs at high volume year-round, but the growth rate is lower than in St. Johns or Lee. Daily intrastate routes run into and out of South Florida, and crew calendars track the steady local demand. See the intrastate movers Florida page for in-state move detail.
How Does County Growth Drive Peak Moving Season?
The Florida peak moving season runs from April through September. Families with school-age kids move in summer to land before the fall term. Snowbird traffic adds a second peak in January through March, mostly into Sarasota, Manatee, Lee, and Collier counties. High-growth counties feel both peaks at once, so local hourly crews fill the calendar weeks ahead of move day.
A buyer who plans a move into a high-growth county in summer should book 8 to 12 weeks out. A buyer with a flexible date can save money by moving October through December, when the demand drops. A binding estimate with transparent pricing and no hidden fees locks the date and the price through the peak weeks. For a deeper read on peak pricing, see the why moving quotes cost 30 percent more if you wait until peak season guide.
What Drives Florida Population Growth Each Year?
Three drivers shape the Florida growth curve. The first is the lack of a state income tax, which pulls earners from high-tax states. The second is the rise of remote work, which lets office workers live in any state with strong broadband. The third is retirement migration, which has pulled people from the Northeast and Midwest for decades. The three forces stack on top of one another and explain why Florida adds residents faster than most states.
The drivers do not hit every county the same way. Remote workers tend to cluster in suburban counties with good schools and new builds, which is why St. Johns and Pasco grow fast. Retirees cluster on the Gulf Coast, which is why Sarasota, Manatee, and Lee stay busy in winter. Job-driven moves into Miami-Dade and Orange counties round out the picture. The Safebound how much does it cost to move out of Florida guide gives the price side of the same migration story.
How Does New Construction Track Population Growth?
New home permits track BEBR population growth tightly. A county that gains 10,000 residents in a year usually issues 3,000 to 4,000 new home permits in the same window. St. Johns, Lee, Pasco, and Osceola lead the state in permits as well as in residents. The link runs both ways. New builds pull buyers in, and new buyers drive more builds.
The construction link matters for moves because new-build deliveries need careful timing. A closing date that slips a week can push a move into a fully booked crew calendar. A coordinated builder schedule paired with short-term storage covers a slip without a missed move date. The 100,000-square-foot Safebound warehouse holds household goods in a climate-controlled bay between pickup and delivery. See the climate-controlled storage page for the storage specs.
What Does the Growth Data Mean for Booking a Florida Move?
The booking takeaway from the BEBR data is simple. Counties with fast growth need longer lead times. A move into St. Johns or Lee in July should be on the books by April. A move into a slower-growth county such as Hillsborough or Duval can hold to a 4-to-6 week lead time without much risk. A winter move into a snowbird county should book before Thanksgiving.
The growth data also points to capacity strain on local hourly crews in the top-growth counties. A long-distance move from out of state into one of these counties pairs better with a single-carrier door-to-door run than with a local crew handoff at the destination. Every household goods move is managed end-to-end under Safebound's contract and USDOT authority, so the buyer has one point of contact from pickup to delivery. See the long-distance moving out of Florida page for cross-state routes.
7 Steps to Use BEBR Data When Planning a Florida Move
Read the BEBR estimate for your target county: The annual Florida Population Studies file gives the prior-year count and the short-range projection. A high percent growth number signals a busy crew calendar.
Compare your county to the state top six: St. Johns, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Pasco, and Osceola lead the chart. A target in any of those six needs an early booking date.
Map your move date to the season: April through September is the summer peak. January through March is the snowbird peak in Sarasota, Manatee, Lee, and Collier. Avoid both windows if your date is flexible.
Set your booking lead time to match the county: A high-growth county in peak season needs an 8 to 12 week lead. A slower-growth county outside the peak can hold for 4 to 6 weeks.
Check the local builder pipeline: A county with a heavy new-build permit count means closings can slide. Build a one-to-two-week storage buffer into the plan to cover a slip.
Lock a binding estimate early: A binding estimate locks the crew, the truck, and the price. A non-binding quote can shift if peak demand spikes the labor rate.
Choose a single carrier for door-to-door work: A long-distance move into a high-growth county runs smoother under one contract from pickup to delivery, without a destination crew handoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is BEBR and where is it published?
BEBR stands for the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. The bureau publishes the official Florida Population Studies series each year on its website at bebr.ufl.edu. The series covers every Florida county with a current estimate and a short-range projection. State agencies, county planners, and moving firms use the data for capacity planning.
Which Florida county is growing fastest in 2026?
St. Johns County, which covers the southern suburbs of Jacksonville, leads in percent population growth. Lee County, which covers Fort Myers and Cape Coral, leads in raw new residents. Sarasota, Manatee, Pasco, and Osceola round out the top group. The pattern matches the BEBR Florida Population Studies file for the year and shows the suburban ring counties pulling ahead of the dense coastal metros.
How many people move to Florida each year?
Florida added roughly 300,000 to 400,000 net new residents per year through the mid-2020s, based on BEBR estimates. The number includes both inbound moves from other states and births minus deaths. The state has held one of the highest net inbound counts in the country for more than a decade. Year-to-year swings track the housing market and the broader economy.
Which Florida counties are losing population?
Rural Panhandle counties such as Liberty, Lafayette, and Hamilton show near-flat or small declines in BEBR data. These counties have small base populations, so a swing of a few hundred residents shifts the percent number. Limited local jobs and a thin housing market both shape the trend. The pattern does not apply to the larger Panhandle metros such as Pensacola or Tallahassee.
When is peak moving season in Florida?
The summer peak runs from April through September, driven by family moves built around the school calendar. A second snowbird peak runs from January through March in the Gulf Coast counties of Sarasota, Manatee, Lee, and Collier. A buyer with a flexible move date can save money by booking October through December, when the demand and the price both drop.
How far ahead should I book a move into St. Johns or Lee County?
Book 8 to 12 weeks ahead for a peak-season move into St. Johns, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Pasco, or Osceola. Crews fill the summer calendar early in these counties. A late booking pushes the date into a weekday or a less-preferred week. Safebound writes a binding estimate at booking, which locks the crew, the truck, and the price through the peak window.
Does the no-income-tax draw still pull people to Florida?
Yes. Florida has no state income tax, which keeps the state at the top of the inbound migration list for earners moving from high-tax states. Remote work and retirement migration add to the count. The pull is not even across the state. Suburban counties with good schools and new builds tend to capture the workers, while the Gulf Coast captures the retirees.
Why do new construction permits matter for a move?
A county that issues many new home permits sees frequent closing-date slips. A delay of one week at closing can push a move into a fully booked crew calendar in a high-growth county. Building a one-to-two-week storage buffer into the plan covers the risk. Safebound runs a 100,000-square-foot climate-controlled warehouse for short-term bridge storage during closing slips.
Does Safebound serve all 67 Florida counties?
Yes. Safebound runs intrastate and interstate moves into and out of all 67 Florida counties under FL IM2839, USDOT 2900155, and MC 975408. Every household goods move is managed end-to-end under Safebound's contract and USDOT authority, so the buyer has one point of contact from pickup to delivery. Call 561-510-7191 to confirm crew availability for any Florida county. Hours: Mon-Fri 8:30amâ9pm | Sat-Sun 10amâ6pm.
Ready to Book a Florida Move That Matches the Growth Curve?
A Florida move into a high-growth county runs smoother when the booking date matches the BEBR pattern. Call 561-510-7191 for a binding written estimate with transparent pricing and no hidden fees. Visit Safebound Moving and Storage to lock crew time and your preferred move date in St. Johns, Lee, Sarasota, Manatee, Pasco, Osceola, or any other Florida county.
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Sources & References
Safebound Moving & Storage is licensed, insured, and certified throughout Florida and the continental United States. USDOT 2900155 | MC 975408 | FL IM2839. BBB Accredited. Forbes Featured. Verify at fdacs.gov or safer.fmcsa.dot.gov.
About the Author
Leo Cavaretta | Moving Industry Specialist, Safebound Moving & Storage
Leo Cavaretta is a moving industry specialist at Safebound Moving & Storage, a licensed carrier based in West Palm Beach, Florida (USDOT 2900155). Leo specializes in interstate moving regulations, USDOT compliance, residential relocation, and moving cost transparency, helping customers navigate the full moving process, from written, price-locked estimates with transparent pricing and no hidden fees to long-distance logistics, with confidence. Since 2016, Safebound has completed more than 35,000 residential and commercial relocations across all 50 states. Safebound holds USDOT 2900155, MC 975408, and FL IM2839, and is BBB Accredited. Get a free quote or learn about Safebound Moving & Storage.
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