Florida BEBR Population Data by County 2026: Movers Guide

Last Updated: July 2026

TL;DR: The University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) puts out the state's official population count each April 1. The 2025 series lists Florida at about 22.9 million and projects 24.5 million by 2030. Osceola, Sumter, St. Johns, Lake, Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota lead on percentage growth.

Florida BEBR data is the state's official yearly read on how many people live in each of the 67 counties. It also shows where growth is heading through 2030. BEBR puts out the counts on April 1 each year under a Florida Statutes rule. The 2025 series lists Florida at about 22.9 million people and expects 24.5 million by 2030. Osceola, Sumter, St. Johns, Lake, Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota lead on growth. Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach still hold the largest counts.

Safebound Moving and Storage is a licensed Florida carrier with USDOT 2900155, MC 975408, and FL IM2839. The team has done more than 35,000+ moves across all 50 states since 2016. Safebound holds 4.9 stars across 2,401 reviews. The team runs a 100,000 sq ft climate-controlled storage site in West Palm Beach. Safebound tracks BEBR, the US Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS), and Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse permit data. That helps clients time a move around county demand peaks.

The six takeaways below frame each data source, county trend, and move planning read tied to the 2025 and 2026 BEBR series.

Key Takeaways

1. Official Source: BEBR is the state's official demographer. Florida agencies use the April 1 counts for state funds, schools, and roads.

2. Statewide Trend: Florida sits at about 22.9 million people in the 2025 series and is on track to reach 24.5 million by 2030.

3. Top Growth Counties: Osceola, Sumter, St. Johns, Lake, Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota lead the state. New housing, retirees, and the I-4 and I-95 job lanes drive the trend.

4. Largest Total Count: Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach still hold the biggest bases. Slower growth still drives steady long-distance move demand.

5. Migration Signal: Net domestic migration into Florida ran near 318,000 in 2023 per the US Census Bureau. BEBR pairs that read with local permit data.

6. How Movers Read the Data: A client uses the BEBR county file to size local capacity, book earlier in high-growth counties, and match delivery to school-year timing.

The seven sections below map each BEBR data point, county read, and planning check to the right stage of a Florida move.

What Is BEBR and How Does It Count Florida Population?

The Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) sits at the University of Florida Warrington College of Business. Florida Statute 186.901 names BEBR the state's official demographer. BEBR puts out an April 1 count each year for the state, each of the 67 counties, and every city. The bureau also runs mid, low, and high tracks through 2050.

The count uses the Housing Unit Method. That method takes lived-in homes, multiplies by people per home, and adds group quarters. BEBR ties the housing side to building permits, power counts, and county tax roll data. That method picks up new homes faster than a Census-only model. The state relies on BEBR for state funds and school planning.

What Do the 2025 and 2026 BEBR Numbers Show Statewide?

The 2025 BEBR count puts Florida at about 22.9 million people. That is up from roughly 22.6 million a year earlier. The mid track carries the state to 24.5 million by 2030 and 27.3 million by 2050. Under the low track Florida still lands near 23.7 million by 2030. The high track pushes past 25.2 million in the same window.

State growth over the past few years runs 300,000 to 400,000 net new people each year. Net domestic migration into Florida ran near 318,000 in 2023 per US Census Bureau ACS data. Global inflow adds another share on top. The Moving to or From Florida in 2026 guide pairs the BEBR read with a home planning list.

Which Counties Lead Percentage Growth in the BEBR Series?

BEBR flags Osceola, Sumter, St. Johns, Lake, Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota as the fastest counties over the past decade. Osceola sits inside Orlando metro and pulls in from Kissimmee, Poinciana, and St. Cloud. Sumter is home to The Villages, a 55 and older area that keeps growing. St. Johns runs from St. Augustine to Nocatee and pulls families off the Jacksonville job market.

Lake County sits between the Orlando and Villages lanes. It adds retiree and family growth on the same lane. Manatee shares the Sarasota metro and gains from coastal spillover. Polk anchors the I-4 lane between Tampa and Orlando. Polk gained more than 100,000 people in the past decade. Sarasota holds a steady Sun Belt draw from the Northeast and Midwest.

Which Counties Still Hold the Largest Total Count?

Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach hold the three largest bases in the state. Miami-Dade sits above two million people. Broward and Palm Beach each land between 1.5 million and 2 million. Hillsborough and Orange follow in the top five, and each sits above 1.4 million. These five counties hold a large share of the state total. Growth runs slower because the base is already large.

Slower growth does not mean flat move volume. Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach still send steady long-distance outbound moves to lower cost metros. They also draw steady inbound from overseas. See the Move Out of Florida 2026 price guide for a route-by-route breakdown.

What Drives the Fastest Growth Counties?

Three main drivers explain why these counties top the chart. The first is new housing supply. BEBR ties its method to Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse permit data. Counties that permit large master planned areas show up faster than counties with slow permit flow. Osceola, St. Johns, and Polk lead the state on new home permits.

The second is inbound moves. US Census Bureau flows show Florida gets net inflow from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, and Georgia. Retirees drive Sumter, Lake, and Sarasota. Young families drive Osceola, St. Johns, and Manatee. The third is job lane growth. The I-4 lane covers Polk, Osceola, and Lake. The northeast Florida lane covers St. Johns. Job growth on those lanes pulls freight in.

How Should a Mover Read BEBR Data When Planning a Move?

A client can use the BEBR county file in four ways. First, the client finds the target county in the current file. Then the client looks at the past three years of growth to see how tight the housing market is. Second, the client checks the county on the Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse permit series. That check shows if new supply is coming online in the target ZIP code. Tight supply and high growth mean earlier booking is a smart hedge.

Third, the client times the move around the school year and permit peaks. High growth counties see peak inbound in May, June, July, and August. A late September or January move often draws better crew slots. Fourth, the client cross-checks the local mover list against the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services (FDACS) file. The FDACS licensing guide covers the state side.

How Does BEBR Differ from the Census?

BEBR and the US Census Bureau both count Florida people. The two use different methods and can differ by tens of thousands in any year. The Census Population Estimates Program uses a national records model. That model leans on IRS migration data, Medicare rolls, and vital records. BEBR uses the Housing Unit Method tied to Florida permit and power data. In fast growing counties BEBR often lists a higher figure because permit data picks up new supply faster.

The BEBR April 1 count is a point in time read. It does not track change during the next year. Tracks through 2030, 2040, and 2050 widen in range as the horizon extends. The mid track is the planning number for most public agencies. A client should always check bebr.ufl.edu rather than a cached year old figure. The Florida interstate move guide covers the federal side of the same check.

How Do the Top Growth Counties Compare on Move Demand?

The table below sums up each of the top BEBR growth counties with the main driver and the move demand signal a client should factor into booking. The figures use the 2025 BEBR county file and round to the nearest ten thousand.

County	2025 BEBR Estimate	Primary Growth Driver	Move Demand Signal
Osceola	~470,000	Orlando metro housing supply and Kissimmee corridor	Heavy inbound long-distance freight from Northeast and Midwest
Sumter	~150,000	The Villages 55 and older community expansion	Steady retiree inbound with high full-service demand
St. Johns	~340,000	Nocatee and Northeast Florida family suburbs	Family long-distance moves peak in May through August
Lake	~430,000	Golden Corridor between Orlando and The Villages	Mixed retiree and family volume across the year
Manatee	~460,000	Sarasota metro spillover along the Gulf Coast	Coastal residential shipments with peak spring demand
Polk	~830,000	I-4 industrial corridor between Tampa and Orlando	Rising mid-tier household inbound volume
Sarasota	~490,000	Sun Belt retiree draw from Northeast and Midwest	Full-service coastal moves with heavy vault storage need

A client can match the target county to the signal and set the booking window earlier for counties on the heaviest lanes. Safebound crews plan crew size and West Palm Beach vault space against those same signals.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is BEBR and why is it the official Florida population source?

The Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida is named the state's official demographer under Florida Statute 186.901. BEBR puts out an April 1 count for the state, each county, and every city. Florida agencies use the figures for revenue sharing, school planning, and roads.

How does BEBR calculate its counts?

BEBR uses the Housing Unit Method. That method takes lived-in homes, multiplies by people per home, and adds group quarters. The bureau ties the housing side to building permits, power customer counts, and county tax roll data. This picks up new homes faster than a Census-only model.

What is Florida's population in the 2025 BEBR series?

The 2025 BEBR count puts Florida at about 22.9 million people. The mid track carries the state to 24.5 million by 2030 and 27.3 million by 2050. The low track lands near 23.7 million by 2030. The high track pushes past 25.2 million in the same window.

Which Florida counties are growing the fastest by percentage?

Osceola, Sumter, St. Johns, Lake, Manatee, Polk, and Sarasota lead the BEBR chart over the past decade. Osceola pulls from Kissimmee and Orlando metro. Sumter grows with The Villages. St. Johns pulls families off Jacksonville. Polk anchors the I-4 lane between Tampa and Orlando.

Which Florida counties hold the largest total population?

Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach hold the three largest bases. Miami-Dade sits above two million people. Broward and Palm Beach each land between 1.5 million and 2 million. Hillsborough and Orange follow in the top five. Each sits above 1.4 million. Slower growth still drives steady long-distance move demand.

How much does net domestic migration add to Florida each year?

US Census Bureau American Community Survey data shows Florida got about 318,000 net domestic migrants in 2023. The heaviest inbound flows come from New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California, and Georgia. Global migration adds another share on top.

How does BEBR data differ from US Census Bureau counts?

BEBR uses the Housing Unit Method tied to Florida permit and power data. The Census Population Estimates Program uses a national records model. That model leans on IRS migration data and Medicare rolls. In fast growing counties BEBR often lists a higher figure because permit data picks up new supply faster.

How should a household use BEBR data when planning a Florida move?

A household checks the target county's BEBR count and past three years of growth. That check shows how tight the housing market is. Tight supply and high growth mean earlier booking is a smart hedge. Peak inbound runs May through August, so late September or January dates often draw better crew slots.

Where does a client verify current BEBR data?

The current BEBR counts, tracks, and county files sit at bebr.ufl.edu under Statistical Products. The Florida Housing Data Clearinghouse permit series and the US Census Bureau American Community Survey give cross-check reads. Safebound tracks each source when planning crew and West Palm Beach vault space.

Ready to Plan a Florida Move With BEBR-Informed Timing?

A high growth Florida county means tight crew and vault space through the May to August window. Call 561-510-7191 for a written, price-locked estimate tied to the target county and date. Or request a free quote to lock a crew before peak season fills. Visit Safebound Moving and Storage to review the full credential stack. Hours: Mon-Fri 8:30am-9pm | Sat-Sun 10am-6pm.

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Sources & References

Safebound Moving & Storage is licensed, insured, and certified throughout Florida and the continental United States. USDOT 2900155 | MC 975408 | FL IM2839. BBB Accredited. Forbes Featured. Verify at fdacs.gov or safer.fmcsa.dot.gov.

About the Author

Leo Cavaretta | Moving Industry Specialist, Safebound Moving & Storage

Leo Cavaretta is a moving industry specialist at Safebound Moving & Storage, a licensed carrier based in West Palm Beach, Florida (USDOT 2900155). Leo specializes in interstate moving regulations, USDOT compliance, residential relocation, and moving cost transparency, helping customers navigate the full moving process, from written, price-locked estimates with transparent pricing and no hidden fees to long-distance logistics, with confidence. Since 2016, Safebound has completed more than 35,000+ moves across all 50 states. Safebound holds USDOT 2900155, MC 975408, and FL IM2839, and is BBB Accredited. Get a free quote or learn about Safebound Moving & Storage.

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